Monday, April 30, 2007

Best Bubble Resources

The following are some excellent resources on the US housing bubble. These links appear on most bubble blogs, but I thought it would be a good exercise to provide descriptions about what may be found at each. This list is by no means comprehensive and I know that I'm not including many worthy regional blogs:

  1. thehousingbubbleblog.com: Probably the most active (5-10 posts per day, 100 to 200 comments per post) housing bubble blog. This blog finds and posts newpaper and web stories related to the bubble from sources such as the New York Times, the WSJ, Bloomberg, CNN as well as local newspapers. Because the news media has finally caught on, each post now cites multiple sources and posts are generally focused on geographic region (i.e. California) or topic (i.e. sub-prime implosion).
  2. www.housingbubblecasualty.com: Insider coverage of the mortgage industry covering sub-prime, Alt-a, exotic loans as well as widespread questionable business practices found during the bubble. If you are interested in understanding the current sub-prime implosion, this is the best starting point. Note: content is great, but posts are somewhat infrequent.
  3. bubbletracking.blogspot.com: A Southern California blog that is a great source for a number of topics. The site provides inventory growth by various markets (ex. LA, Orange County) that is hard to find elsewhere. It also provides individual stories about failed flips. The site is also an eye opener in terms of the sheer volume and prevalence of mortgage fraud in Orange County. After reading this site, you will not be in favor of a sub-prime bailout.
  4. marinrealestatebubble.blogspot.com: A very well written blog covering Northern California (Marin in particular). Good analysis and common sense.
  5. flippersintrouble.blogspot.com: A site dedicated to flippers in trouble in Sacramento. This site computes the losses (in the hundreds of thousands) for hundreds of flippers who have failed in Sacramento. This site really demonstrates the recklessness of flipping as well as the huge losses late flippers experienced. Read this if you have been "pumped up" by real estate gurus or TV shows like Flip this house and are thinking it will be easy to become a real estate millionaire. A dose of reality.
  6. davidlereahwatch.blogspot.com: A site that tracks statements made by the NAR. While David Lereah, the old spokesman has left, I predict that no matter what the economic data shows, the NAR message will continue to be "it's a great time to buy or sell a house". This site is fun because it let's you see all the old NAR preditions and how wrong they were. For instance, the NAR has called the bottom of the market 4 times so far. This would be a good place for the press to go before they blindly quote the NAR.
  7. housingpanic.blogspot.com: A good blog, and I agree with his conclusions. However, this may be a little too edgy for some. Some profanity. Keith often finds gems that are not found on other sites showing the absurdity of some in this mania.
  8. http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html: Probably the best single source to debunk the the claim that the recent price surge is the result of fundamentals. Site also has a very active community with 300-400 posts per blog entry.
  9. http://iamfacingforeclosure.com/: Quoted in the Economist and other main stream sources, this is a blog written by a young flipper in Sacramento who speculated on 7 houses using $2.2 million of exotic loans and subsequently lost them all. It is a good case study to the dangers of speculation. Surprisingly, the writer still believes that flipping is a viable business model and that those who question it are "haters". It also provides good insight into the mind of a speculator.
  10. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Us_housing_bubble: wikipedia coverage of the US housing bubble. Probably the best place to get an overview of the entire situation. Excellent starting point and the only resource that most people with the desire to get a basic understanding of the bubble will need.

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